Value of GW Blood Bowl miniatures - with a focus on eBay auctions

From 1987 to 2007 Games Workshop has been selling miniatures of 5 different editions of Blood Bowl. Except for some plastic frames included in the basic game boxes, all of these models were in metal and do not degrade as time passes - they can survive the most horrible paint-jobs with a simple acetone bath. That represents 20 years of building up a pool of Blood Bowl miniatures, with 2nd (1988) and 3rd edition (1993) probably representing 95% of the bulk of miniatures.

While the game retained a fanatic following, Games Workshop discontinued the Blood Bowl range in 2007 as the company was bending back on their core systems of tabletop wargames. Demand remained there so the supply gap was filled in by (small) non-GW companies launching alternative "fantasy football" miniatures. The original GW miniatures remained very popular so a market for 2nd-hand miniatures proliferated, facilitated by on-line auction sites with eBay being the biggest reference.

Following-up eBay auctions and having some experience myself in buying and selling miniatures, Blood Bowl miniatures can be classified according to value:

1. Zero-value : These miniatures have no individual value which justifies any additional costs such as shipping, commissions, ... Market is saturated with these models, coaches have no use for them and / or they have no esthetic or fluff value. They'll only be part of a "package deal" transaction, in which costs are spread over multiple miniatures but even so the quantity of models needs to be high, the package needs to contain some higher value miniatures or these miniatures are part of a well-painted team with a good miniature balance. Bulk of 2nd and 3rd edition linemen miniatures belong in this category, but also some particularly useless or ugly positional models.
2. Low-value (approx. 2 - 5 €) : Coaches / collectors will pick these up to fill in a key player gap in their near-complete roster. In this category you will mainly find 2nd and 3rd edition positional players, and a few 3rd edition star players.
3. Mid-value (approx. 10 €) : Getting into the more expensive range of models, miniatures will catch this price because they are harder to find or because they have a high esthetic and / or fluff value. Blood Bowl coaches / collectors are a nostalgic bunch and will pay money for miniatures which represent particularly well the spirit of madness embodied by Blood Bowl. On the lower end of this class you find most 1st edition miniatures. Moving up in price you'll encounter 2nd and 3rd edition star players and big guys. As 4th and 5th edition was on sale for a relatively short period of time, many of these miniatures have low numbers of availability and will fit into this category.
4. High-value (approx. 20 €) : We are talking serious money for a single miniature here  ! All models in this category are rare or even limited edition collector's items. Blood Bowl coaches will have a very good reason why they are looking for these specific miniatures and are willing to put cash on the table to get them. Bidding wars between motivated collectors can drive prices significantly up. Typical examples are 4th and 5th edition star players, "Rotters" from the Nurgle team, 5th edition Griff Oberwald , Zara the Slayer, Hack and Slash, Skitter Stab-Stab, Slibli, ... and all 7 limited edition Chaos Cup All-Stars miniatures.
5. "Let's go bananas"-value (+35 €) : Yes, some Blood Bowl miniatures will easily hit values of 50 €, with a record 114,53 € for a single, unpainted model as recently as November 2016. Demand for these miniatures far outweighs the supply, with collectors not willing to separate from their treasure. So everybody is watching out for the rare opportunity when a miniature goes on sale because of whatever reason and bidding wars start. The list of these Blood Bowl miniatures is limited and well-known to collectors (possibly I'm forgetting a few here) : Mighty Zug 5th edition (both official and GW-staff version), both 5th edition Dark Elf Assassins, Thrud, "Resurrection" Gutter Runner, Lizardmen Cheerleader and an unreleased Human Blood Bowl coach which it appears is the most rare and expensive miniature in the market ?

These are my findings and I don't expect everyone to agree, certainly not some semi-professional eBay re-sellers when I have a look at their "Buy it Now" prices . But these do not represent the value of a miniature as long as no-one is buying them to confirm the price. Basic principle of market mechanism tells the price is where demand and supply meet. That is why I love the auctions, as a finished auction confirms seller and buyer have found each other in the open market and the value of the miniature has been confirmed by a transaction.

The secret to happy collecting is "be selective". Unless you have unlimited resources to spend but that wouldn't be as much fun, I guess.